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10

Destination Unkown

5yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 58

Market Rasen · Agriculture Raceday Returns On 12th November Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 16y

#7

Rank

Odds

300/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★ Timeform

Commentary

Limited maiden on Flat. Hasn't shown anything over hurdles.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 7.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 25/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 1m4f98y Std 13025/0355 @ Redcar 07/04/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 1m2f1y Gd 1385 @ Southwell 30/04/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR - · 1m4f14y Sta 14230/0456 @ Pontefract 09/06/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 55 · 2m1f27y Goo 131 · below its mark09/06/2025 · OR 55 par6 @ Southwell 06/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 50 · 1m3f23y Std 135 · beat its mark06/01/2026 · OR 50 par6/016OR 506 @ Southwell 20/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 46 · 1m6f21y Std 126 · beat its mark20/01/2026 · OR 46 par4 @ Cartmel 20/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 2m1f46y Gd 158 · HIGHER CLASS20/0744 @ Market Rasen 15/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR 58 · 2m125y Gd 154 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 58 par4 @ Cartmel 29/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 58 · 2m1f46y Goo 156 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 58 par29/084OR 58projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Cartmel49th8th+1
2026-08-15Market Rasen43rd2nd+1
2026-07-20Cartmel47th6th+1
2026-04-05Market Rasen4+1
2026-01-20Southwell68th9th−1
2026-01-06Southwell610th11th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/039/0620/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 9-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -2.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/03/20255th50/10%33%+0.33
07/04/20259th50/10%20%+0.20
30/04/202510th250/10%10%+0.10
09/06/202510th33/10%0%0.00
06/01/202610th150/10%10%+0.10
20/01/20268th300/10%13%+0.13
20/07/20267th200/10%14%+0.14
15/08/20263rd100/10%0%0.00
29/08/20269th300/10%0%0.00