Mistral Milly
7yo Mare · 11-9 · OR 93
Market Rasen · Agriculture Raceday Returns On 12th November Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 16y
#8
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Worcester | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Worcester | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-13 | Perth | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Warwick | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Haydock | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2024-10-17 | Wincanton | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2023 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 21/01/2024 | 4th | 150/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 29/02/2024 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 14/04/2024 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 17/10/2024 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |
| 05/03/2026 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 26/03/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 13/05/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.20 |
| 04/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |