The Clonmel Kid
7yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 98
Market Rasen · Agriculture Raceday Returns On 12th November Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 16y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Market Rasen | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Uttoxeter | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Hexham | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Hexham | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Kelso | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Newcastle | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 28/12/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 54% | +0.06 |
| 27/03/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 11/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 06/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/5 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 19/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 38% | +0.32 |
| 07/07/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |