3
Heavy Timber
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 70
Meadowlands · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Monmouth Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Meadowlands | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-01 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-05 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength78%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2023 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 16/08/2024 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 14/09/2024 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 05/07/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 01/08/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 04/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 20/05/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 09/08/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 30/08/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |