2
Identity Crisis
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 79
Meadowlands · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f
#6
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Monmouth Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength34%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 22/08/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 64% | +0.03 |
| 11/01/2026 | 8th | 15/8 | 90% | 13% | -0.78 |
| 15/02/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 17/07/2026 | 7th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |
| 09/08/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 57% | -0.33 |
| 06/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |