5

Just Comply

6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 85

Meadowlands · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

94%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength66%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 24/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 81 · 1m Fm 121 · below its mark24/12/2025 · OR 81 par24/12C8OR 81C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 13/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 83 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark13/02/2026 · OR 83 parC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 25/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 86 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark25/03/2026 · OR 86 par25/03C8OR 86C6 @ Monmouth Park 20/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 85 · 5f110y Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/06/2026 · OR 85 parC8 @ Monmouth Park 28/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 87 · 5f110y Fm 121 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 87 par28/06C8OR 87C6 @ Monmouth Park 12/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 86 · 1m Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 86 parC8 @ Monmouth Park 26/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 85 · 5f110y Fm 119 · beat its mark26/07/2026 · OR 85 par26/07C8OR 85C8 @ Monmouth Park 30/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 83 · 5f110y Fm 125 · below its mark30/08/2026 · OR 83 parC6 @ Monmouth Park 07/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 82 · 1m Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 82 par7/09C6OR 82projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Monmouth Park?5th3rd+2
2026-08-30Monmouth Park?3rd3rd0
2026-07-26Monmouth Park?1st1st0
2026-07-12Monmouth Park?10th8th+2
2026-06-28Monmouth Park?3rd3rd0
2026-06-20Monmouth Park?4th2nd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/1220/0626/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +12.6% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/12/20259th13/266%11%-0.55
13/02/20262nd7/282%89%+0.07
25/03/202610th4/179%0%-0.79
20/06/20264th11/271%50%-0.21
28/06/20263rd7/282%67%-0.15
12/07/202610th25/10%10%+0.10
26/07/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
30/08/20263rd10/147%71%+0.24
07/09/20265th20/10%67%+0.67