11
Fire Thunder
2yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 70
Newmarket · British Stallion Studs EBF 'Jersey Lily' Fillies' Nursery · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Newmarket | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Newmarket | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Lingfield | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-04 | Lingfield | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-18 | Windsor | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength78%
Delivery trend -7.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 18/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 89% | -0.07 |
| 15/07/2026 | 1st | 1/4 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |