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10

Marsala

2yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 74

Newmarket · British Stallion Studs EBF 'Jersey Lily' Fillies' Nursery · 7f

#9

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Mehmas filly from a family her yard has had success with. Promising fourth starting out over 6f at Newbury in July and while she hasn't built on that twice since, she appeals as the type to progress with racing.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 02/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 6f GF 1282/0743 @ Kempton 12/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 7f Sta 12812/0832 @ Haydock 04/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR - · 6f Hvy 1284/092projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Haydock23rd3rd0
2026-08-12Kempton37th8th−1
2026-07-02Newbury44th6th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0712/084/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 9-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -36.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/07/20264th8/158%75%+0.17
12/08/20267th6/492%45%-0.47
04/09/20263rd2/189%33%-0.56