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5

Tie A Navyribbon

2yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 80

Newmarket · British Stallion Studs EBF 'Jersey Lily' Fillies' Nursery · 7f

#6

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Promising third on debut before finishing well held in the Sweet Solera. Got off the mark with sights lowered in a 1m novice (first 3 runs on the July Course) and this a far more suitable assignment than the Group 2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster 2 weeks ago. Back in distance.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Newmarket 17/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 7f GF 12817/0731 @ Newmarket 08/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 7f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS8/0813 @ Newmarket 20/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 1m Goo 12820/0831 @ Doncaster 10/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 82 · 1m Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 82 par10/091OR 82projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Doncaster111th9th+2
2026-08-20Newmarket31st2nd−1
2026-08-08Newmarket16th4th+1
2026-07-17Newmarket33rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/078/0820/0810/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 10-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -19.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/07/20263rd100/10%67%+0.67
08/08/20266th66/10%17%+0.17
20/08/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
10/09/202611th125/10%0%0.00