6
Zephyra
2yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 77
Newmarket · British Stallion Studs EBF 'Jersey Lily' Fillies' Nursery · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Beverley | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-08-20 | Newmarket | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Newmarket | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength5%
Delivery trend -40.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 16/09/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |