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Burning Up

2yo Colt · 9-2 · OR 97

Newmarket · Tattersalls Online Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Too Darn Hot colt who is 2-2 in maiden/novice events over 1m at Haydock. Looks capable of making his presence felt in a higher grade.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲3
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 1.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.6
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Haydock 07/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 7f212y Goo 1337/0833 @ Haydock 03/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 7f212y Sft 1353/093projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Haydock31st4th−3
2026-08-07Haydock31st4th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/083/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 4-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength57%

Delivery trend -18.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
03/09/20261st4/998%100%+0.02