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2

First Law

2yo Colt · 9-2 · OR 101

Newmarket · Tattersalls Online Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

1,000,000 gns Too Darn Hot colt who overcame inexperience on his 1m Sandown debut and saw off Rocket Boy in a listed race at Haydock (1m, soft) a month later. This smart prospect is the mount of William Buick from the Charlie Appleby pair and gets the vote.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength6%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 1.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Sandown 06/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR - · 1m Goo 1336/0831 @ Haydock 05/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 7f212y Hvy 1305/091projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Haydock11st2nd−0
2026-08-06Sandown31st4th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength96%

Delivery trend +4.1% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/08/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
05/09/20261st6/492%100%+0.08