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Haffner

2yo Colt · 9-2 · OR 110

Newmarket · Tattersalls Online Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

7/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Second in Group 2 Vintage at Goodwood before going one place better in the Acomb at York (7f, good). Well beaten in the Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh since but he's a lot better than that. First attempt at 1m.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 2.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 26/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 13326/06C83 @ Newmarket 11/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 7f GF 12811/0731 @ Goodwood 28/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 7f Goo 12928/0711 @ York 19/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 108 · 7f Goo 129 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 108 par19/081OR 1081 @ Curragh 13/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 111 · 7f Yie 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/09/2026 · OR 111 par13/091OR 111projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Curragh17th7th+0
2026-08-19York11st1st−0
2026-07-28Goodwood12nd2nd0
2026-07-11Newmarket31st4th−3
2026-06-26Curragh?2nd11th−8

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0611/0728/0719/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength20%

Delivery trend -25.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/06/20262nd18/15%91%+0.86
11/07/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
28/07/20262nd4/179%80%+0.01
19/08/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
13/09/20267th8/158%14%-0.44