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4

Iwasjustsaying

2yo Colt · 9-2 · OR 86

Newmarket · Tattersalls Online Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) · 1m

#7

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made a promising winning start to his career in a 4-runner novice at Doncaster (7f, firm) in August. Bettered that form when second of 9 under a penalty at Leicester (7f, good) 18 days ago. Open to further progress but this is a jump in class.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲3
Strength11%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 1.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.6
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Doncaster 15/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR - · 7f6y GF 13315/0833 @ Leicester 08/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 7f GS 1358/093projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Leicester32nd5th−3
2026-08-15Doncaster31st4th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/088/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 7-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -19.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/08/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
08/09/20262nd7/491%88%-0.03