2
Libertango
2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 107
Newmarket · Tattersalls Sceptre Sessions Cheveley Park Stakes (Fillies' Group 1) · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 1.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | York | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Newmarket | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Leicester | 4 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength66%
Delivery trend -5.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 86% | -0.10 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |