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3

Moonrise

2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 109

Newmarket · Tattersalls Sceptre Sessions Cheveley Park Stakes (Fillies' Group 1) · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

28/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has gone the right way with each of her 4 starts, following her runner-up effort in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot with Group 3 success at the same course a month later. Overcame her wide draw when making all in Sirenia Stakes at Kempton, though will need to find more again in this contest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength14%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 1.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 27/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 6f Sta 12827/0541 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 25 · OR - · 6f GF 12317/0611 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 93 · 6f GF 128 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 93 par25/071OR 931 @ Kempton 05/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 100 · 6f Sta 129 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 100 par5/091OR 100projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Kempton11st2nd−0
2026-07-25Ascot11st2nd−0
2026-06-17Royal Ascot12nd3rd−1
2026-05-27Kempton41st6th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0517/0625/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength16%

Delivery trend -10.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/05/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
17/06/20262nd66/10%96%+0.96
25/07/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
05/09/20261st11/486%100%+0.14