4
Senorita Bonita
2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 117
Newmarket · Tattersalls Sceptre Sessions Cheveley Park Stakes (Fillies' Group 1) · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
87%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 1.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Deauville | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Newmarket | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Nottingham | 4 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 96% | +0.38 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 23/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |