1
Confucius
2yo Colt · 9-2 · OR 101
Newmarket · Tattersalls Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#2
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Curragh | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Curragh | 1 | 3rd | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 6th | 6th | −0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Naas | ? | 1st | 10th | −8 |
| 2026-04-03 | Curragh | ? | 2nd | 11th | −8 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 7-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 86% | -0.08 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 1/5 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 16/06/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 1/3 | 98% | 50% | -0.48 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 67% | -0.28 |