2
Force Noir
2yo Colt · 9-2 · OR 94
Newmarket · Tattersalls Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲6
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 12.5 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -6.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Dundalk | BHA86 | 1st | 11th | −8 |
| 2026-06-20 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 17th | 17th | −0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Naas | ? | 1st | 10th | −8 |
| 2026-03-15 | Curragh | ? | 2nd | 11th | −8 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 5-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 27/04/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 20/06/2026 | 17th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 18/09/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |