3
Hell Of A Spin
2yo Colt · 9-2 · OR 101
Newmarket · Tattersalls Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | York | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Goodwood | 1 | 3rd | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Hamilton | 4 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-06-27 | Newcastle | 2 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength99%
Delivery trend +20.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 29/07/2026 | 3rd | 66/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 78% | +0.73 |