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6

Orthodox

2yo Colt · 9-2 · OR 110

Newmarket · Tattersalls Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Justified market support for a Salisbury maiden on debut before following up in impressive fashion in the 21-runner Norfolk at Royal Ascot. Not in the same form in the Prix Morny at Deauville 10 weeks later but big player if bouncing back.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 2.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Salisbury 14/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 5f Goo 13314/0531 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 21 · OR - · 5f GF 12920/0611 @ Deauville 23/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 110 · 5f212y Sft 125 · below its mark23/08/2026 · OR 110 par23/081OR 110projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-23Deauville16th6th0
2026-06-20Royal Ascot11st1st−0
2026-05-14Salisbury31st4th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0520/0623/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -36.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/05/20261st4/696%100%+0.04
20/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
23/08/20266th5/287%17%-0.70