14
Alcarath
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 92
Newmarket · bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) · 1m 1f
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Sandown | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Sandown | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Newbury | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Newmarket | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-04 | Redcar | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 2765% of fieldRange 9-26 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength36%
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 27. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 29/08/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 28/09/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 04/11/2025 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 63% | -0.30 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 15/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 70% | +0.12 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 92% | +0.07 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 90% | +0.06 |