7
Asmen Warrior
4yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 99
Newmarket · bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) · 1m 1f
#16
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Ascot | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Newmarket | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Epsom Downs | 2 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Windsor | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-28 | Epsom Downs | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Thirsk | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish22nd of 2719% of fieldRange 23-27 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 22nd of 27.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 06/09/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 13/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 28/04/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 60% | +0.05 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |
| 05/06/2026 | 15th | 5/1 | 74% | 18% | -0.56 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 25/07/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |