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6

Bourbon Blues

3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 101

Newmarket · bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) · 1m 1f

#5

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained reward for good-placed efforts at Glorious Goodwood and the York Ebor Festival when landing a 3-y-o only handicap at the Doncaster St Leger meeting (1¼m, good) under Ryan Moore 16 days ago. Little more needed under a 4-lb penalty.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 2
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 22/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 97 · 1m2f Gd 135 · beat its mark22/10/2025 · OR 97 par22/102OR 97C1 @ Chantilly 18/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 97 · 1m208y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/11/2025 · OR 97 par1 @ Newmarket 15/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 105 · 1m1f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 105 par15/041OR 1052 @ Newbury 16/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 105 · 1m2f Goo 135 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 105 par2 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 103 · 1m1f212y GF 135 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 103 par20/062OR 1032 @ Sandown 04/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 102 · 1m Goo 121 · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 102 par2 @ Goodwood 30/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 100 · 1m1f197y Goo 135 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 100 par30/072OR 1002 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 20 · OR 100 · 1m2f56y Goo 128 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 100 par2 @ Doncaster 10/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 101 · 1m2f43y Goo 135 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 101 par10/092OR 101projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 27
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Doncaster21st1st0
2026-08-22York23rd3rd0
2026-07-30Goodwood22nd2nd0
2026-07-04Sandown212th12th0
2026-06-20Royal Ascot26th6th0
2026-05-16Newbury210th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/1016/0530/0710/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 2792% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +9.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 27. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/10/20252nd9/488%50%-0.38
18/11/20252nd12/137%80%+0.43
15/04/20263rd11/142%67%+0.25
16/05/202610th16/116%0%-0.16
20/06/20266th40/10%67%+0.67
04/07/202612th25/10%15%+0.15
30/07/20262nd25/10%92%+0.92
22/08/20263rd16/116%89%+0.74
10/09/20261st7/163%100%+0.37