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12

Crest of Fire

3yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 98

Newmarket · bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) · 1m 1f

#8

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Second success of 2026 when landing a 9f handicap at Glorious Goodwood (good to firm) in August. Found a Windsor Group 3 too much since but should be a lot more competitive back in a handicap.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.4
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Ascot 12/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR - · 7f GF 13312/0725 @ Ffos Las 13/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 84 · 7f80y Goo 133 · beat its mark13/08/2025 · OR 84 par3 @ Doncaster 11/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 83 · 1m Goo 128 · beat its mark11/09/2025 · OR 83 par11/093OR 834 @ Southwell 26/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 86 · 1m13y Std 125 · beat its mark26/03/2026 · OR 86 par2 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 86 · 7f173y Goo 122 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 86 par30/052OR 862 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2026 · Pos 21st of 30 · OR 91 · 1m GF 123 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 91 par3 @ Ascot 10/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 90 · 7f213y GF 135 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 90 par10/073OR 903 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 94 · 1m1f11y GF 132 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 94 par1 @ Windsor 07/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 98 · 1m2f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 98 par7/091OR 98projClass-projected finish: 18th of 27
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Windsor17th5th+1
2026-08-01Goodwood31st2nd−1
2026-07-10Ascot32nd3rd−1
2026-06-18Royal Ascot221th21th0
2026-05-30Carlisle23rd3rd0
2026-03-26Southwell41st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0726/0310/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 2742% of fieldRange 19-27 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength6%

Delivery trend +0.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 16th of 27.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/07/20254th15/890%77%-0.13
13/08/20253rd9/488%78%-0.10
11/09/20252nd6/168%86%+0.17
26/03/20261st2/598%100%+0.02
30/05/20263rd10/382%85%+0.02
18/06/202621st28/10%31%+0.31
10/07/20262nd11/486%90%+0.04
01/08/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
07/09/20267th14/126%0%-0.26