IvyArcIvyArc
28

Dwindling Funds

5yo Gelding · 8-2 · OR 79

Newmarket · bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) · 1m 1f

#23

Rank

Odds

40/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#23

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Likeable type who won 6 times during a remarkable 2025. Added to tally in 15-runner event at York in July but has found things tougher off higher marks since. Hard to fancy from 3 lb out of the weights.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Musselburgh 26/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 76 · 1m2y Goo 136 · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 76 par26/044OR 764 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 17 · OR 75 · 1m3f188y Gd 125 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Ayr 19/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 73 · 1m2f Sft 128 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 73 par19/064OR 733 @ Musselburgh 30/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 72 · 1m208y Goo 123 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 72 par3 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 72 · 1m Gd 125 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 72 par5/073OR 724 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 76 · 7f192y Goo 132 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 76 par3 @ Hamilton 11/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 79 · 1m1f35y Goo 132 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 79 par11/083OR 794 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 19 · OR 79 · 7f192y GS 136 · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Ayr 19/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 78 · 7f50y Hvy 134 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 78 par19/094OR 78projClass-projected finish: 20th of 27
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Ayr44th6th−2
2026-09-06York46th8th−2
2026-08-11Hamilton39th10th−1
2026-07-25York41st3rd−2
2026-07-05Ayr32nd3rd−1
2026-06-30Musselburgh32nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0430/0611/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish23rd of 2715% of fieldRange 13-27 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength8%

Delivery trend +1.4% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 23rd of 27.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/04/202611th9/488%17%-0.71
13/05/202612th18/15%31%+0.26
19/06/20264th13/266%67%+0.01
30/06/20262nd12/137%88%+0.51
05/07/20262nd10/382%89%+0.06
25/07/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
11/08/20269th10/147%33%-0.14
06/09/20266th11/271%72%+0.01
19/09/20264th7/282%63%-0.19