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4

Erzindjan

8yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 100

Newmarket · bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) · 1m 1f

#2

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

75%

Place Prob

49%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Shaped very well when fourth (clear on his side) in this race last year. Returned to win a C&D handicap in May and good sixth of 28 in Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot (1m, good to firm) next time. Rare below-par run at York last month but very much the type to bounce back over a C&D which evidently suits.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA103 @ Galway 30/07/2024 · Pos 18th of 18 · OR 103 · 1m123y Yie 140 · below its mark30/07/2024 · OR 103 par30/07103OR 1032 @ York 12/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 98 · 1m2f56y Goo 132 · beat its mark12/07/2025 · OR 98 par2 @ York 23/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 99 · 1m2f56y Goo 137 · beat its mark23/08/2025 · OR 99 par23/082OR 992 @ Newmarket 27/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 23 · OR 98 · 1m1f GF 127 · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 98 par2 @ York 11/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 99 · 1m2f56y Gd 129 · beat its mark11/10/2025 · OR 99 par11/102OR 991 @ Newmarket 01/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 99 · 1m2f GS 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/11/2025 · OR 99 par2 @ Newmarket 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 99 · 1m1f GF 132 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 99 par2/052OR 992 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 28 · OR 101 · 1m GF 129 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 101 par2 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 20 · OR 101 · 1m2f56y Goo 136 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 101 par22/082OR 101projClass-projected finish: 15th of 27
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22York212th12th0
2026-06-17Royal Ascot26th6th0
2026-05-02Newmarket21st1st0
2025-11-01Newmarket18th7th+1
2025-10-11York25th5th0
2025-09-27Newmarket24th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0727/092/0522/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 2788% of fieldRange 1-24 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength63%

Delivery trend -1.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 27.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/07/202418th18/15%0%-0.05
12/07/20254th80/10%82%+0.82
23/08/20257th9/153%57%+0.05
27/09/20254th28/10%86%+0.86
11/10/20255th9/488%69%-0.19
01/11/20258th12/137%22%-0.15
02/05/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
17/06/20266th17/255%81%+0.26
22/08/202612th14/126%42%+0.16