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26

First Ambition

5yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 83

Newmarket · bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) · 1m 1f

#25

Rank

Odds

100/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#25

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual winner on all-weather last year for Karl Burke. Some respectable efforts in defeat for current yard, including third of 12 at Wolverhampton (8.6f) 19 days ago, but unlikely he can get his head back in front in a race as strong as this.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Haydock 27/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 91 · 7f212y Goo 129 · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 91 par27/092OR 912 @ Doncaster 24/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 91 · 7f6y Sft 127 · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 91 par3 @ Newcastle 27/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 90 · 1m5y Std 136 · beat its mark27/11/2025 · OR 90 par27/113OR 903 @ Southwell 20/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 89 · 1m13y Std 133 · beat its mark20/02/2026 · OR 89 par2 @ Wolverhampton 07/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 88 · 1m142y Std 122 · beat its mark07/03/2026 · OR 88 par7/032OR 882 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 19th of 22 · OR 89 · 1m Goo 137 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 89 par4 @ Kempton 02/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 85 · 1m Sta 135 · below its mark02/07/2026 · OR 85 par2/074OR 853 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 84 · 1m1f11y GF 130 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ Wolverhampton 07/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 83 · 1m142y Std 133 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 83 par7/094OR 83projClass-projected finish: 22nd of 27
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Wolverhampton43rd5th−2
2026-08-01Goodwood36th7th−1
2026-07-02Kempton46th8th−2
2026-03-28Doncaster219th19th0
2026-03-07Wolverhampton27th7th0
2026-02-20Southwell36th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0920/022/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish19th of 2731% of fieldRange 6-27 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength39%

Delivery trend +6.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 19th of 27. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/09/20252nd6/168%89%+0.20
24/10/20257th6/168%33%-0.35
27/11/20256th4/179%55%-0.24
20/02/20266th9/276%55%-0.22
07/03/20267th20/10%45%+0.45
28/03/202619th22/10%14%+0.14
02/07/20266th12/137%17%-0.20
01/08/20266th150/10%64%+0.64
07/09/20263rd9/153%82%+0.29