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5

Hard Endeavor

4yo Colt · 9-6 · OR 100

Newmarket · bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) · 1m 1f

#15

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has progressed into a smart handicapper this year, notably headed only late on when second in 14-runner Coral Challenge at Sandown (1m, good to firm) in July. Might have just needed it after 2 months off when fifth of 13 at Ascot (1m, good) 3 weeks ago and that should have put him spot on for this.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.1
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 16/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR - · 1m Gd 13316/0425 @ Doncaster 06/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR - · 1m Goo 1304 @ Kempton 03/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m Sta 1313/114C1 @ Deauville 26/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 89 · 1m1f97y Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/11/2025 · OR 89 par2 @ Newbury 16/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR 101 · 1m Goo 134 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 101 par16/052OR 1012 @ Sandown 13/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 98 · 1m Goo 140 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 98 par2 @ Sandown 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 97 · 1m Goo 125 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 97 par4/072OR 972 @ Ascot 04/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 100 · 1m Goo 136 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 100 par4/092OR 100projClass-projected finish: 13th of 27
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Ascot25th5th0
2026-07-04Sandown22nd2nd0
2026-06-13Sandown24th4th0
2026-05-16Newbury214th14th0
2025-11-26Deauville?5th4th+1
2025-11-03Kempton41st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0426/114/074/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 2746% of fieldRange 7-27 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength35%

Delivery trend +5.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 15th of 27. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/04/20253rd11/486%86%+0.00
06/06/20253rd15/890%87%-0.03
03/11/20251st1/899%100%+0.01
26/11/20255th9/276%33%-0.43
16/05/202614th40/10%7%+0.07
13/06/20264th22/10%73%+0.73
04/07/20262nd7/163%92%+0.29
04/09/20265th8/158%67%+0.09