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21

Nizam

4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 89

Newmarket · bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) · 1m 1f

#27

Rank

Odds

100/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#27

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful 3-time winner in France but has just the one creditable effort to show from a handful of outings for current yard. The cheekpieces and tongue tie combination he wore last time are quickly discarded.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 12.0 /10 (raw 7.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 2
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Clairefontaine 15/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 1m208y GS 12515/08C5C0 @ Deauville 28/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 125C1 @ Saint-Cloud 03/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 6f211y GS 125 · HIGHER CLASS3/10C1C1 @ Saint-Cloud 09/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 124 · HIGHER CLASS2 @ Newbury 18/04/2026 · Pos 23rd of 24 · OR 98 · 1m Goo 131 · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 98 par18/042OR 982 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 18 · OR 95 · 1m113y Goo 133 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 95 par2 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 28 · OR 94 · 7f GF 127 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 94 par18/062OR 942 @ York 20/08/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 92 · 7f192y GS 122 · below its mark20/08/2026 · OR 92 par3 @ Yarmouth 16/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 89 · 1m1f21y Goo 136 · below its mark16/09/2026 · OR 89 par16/093OR 89projClass-projected finish: 25th of 27
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Yarmouth310th11th−1
2026-08-20York213th13th0
2026-06-18Royal Ascot213th13th0
2026-06-05Epsom Downs27th7th0
2026-04-18Newbury223th23th0
2025-11-09Saint-Cloud?6th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/089/1118/0616/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish25th of 278% of fieldRange 12-27 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength14%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 25th of 27.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/08/20252nd8/158%88%+0.30
28/08/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
03/10/20255th5/174%60%-0.14
09/11/20256th18/15%50%+0.45
18/04/202623rd80/10%4%+0.04
05/06/20267th50/10%65%+0.65
18/06/202613th100/10%56%+0.56
20/08/202613th11/142%8%-0.34
16/09/202610th25/10%10%+0.10