17
Pierre Royal
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 91
Newmarket · bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) · 1m 1f
#21
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#21
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲7
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 13.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.9
Today: 2
Class gap: -6.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Curragh | BHA91 | 14th | 23th | −7 |
| 2026-08-29 | Curragh | BHA93 | 3rd | 12th | −7 |
| 2026-08-02 | Galway | BHA91 | 4th | 13th | −7 |
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | BHA91 | 2nd | 11th | −7 |
| 2026-06-28 | Curragh | BHA82 | 1st | 8th | −6 |
| 2026-06-10 | Limerick | BHA83 | 6th | 14th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish24th of 2712% of fieldRange 17-27 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength5%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 24th of 27.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/05/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 91% | +0.03 |
| 21/05/2025 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 05/06/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 55% | -0.27 |
| 10/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 94% | +0.12 |
| 02/08/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 77% | -0.14 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 13/09/2026 | 14th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.09 |