Principality
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 91
Newmarket · bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) · 1m 1f
#13
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Salisbury | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-30 | Goodwood | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Newmarket | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Epsom Downs | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Nottingham | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-03-28 | Doncaster | 2 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 18th of 27. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 12/10/2025 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 73% | +0.31 |
| 01/11/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 28/03/2026 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 52% | -0.06 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 05/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 76% | +0.61 |
| 14/08/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 30/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 90% | +0.14 |