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Salam Dubawi

4yo Gelding · 8-4 · OR 84

Newmarket · bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) · 1m 1f

#20

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#20

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair German 1m winner. Has improved for new yard this season, scoring at Hamilton (9f) in May and good fifth in John Smith's Cup at York (demoted from third for hanging left). Has shaped better than the result at York and Ayr on last 2 starts and likely still in form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Musselburgh 26/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 81 · 7f15y Goo 131 · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 81 par26/044OR 814 @ Hamilton 15/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 81 · 1m1f35y Gd 136 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 81 par2 @ Redcar 25/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 87 · 1m2f1y Goo 132 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 87 par25/052OR 873 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 87 · 1m Gd 140 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 87 par2 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 22 · OR 87 · 1m2f56y Goo 120 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 87 par11/072OR 872 @ Hamilton 16/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 87 · 1m68y Goo 129 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 87 par2 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 87 · 1m GF 121 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 87 par25/072OR 872 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 20 · OR 86 · 1m2f56y Goo 121 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 86 par2 @ Ayr 19/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 84 · 1m Hvy 124 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 84 par19/092OR 84projClass-projected finish: 21st of 27
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Ayr26th6th0
2026-08-22York211th11th0
2026-07-25Ascot211th11th0
2026-07-16Hamilton24th4th0
2026-07-11York23rd3rd0
2026-07-05Ayr33rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/045/0725/0719/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish20th of 2727% of fieldRange 4-27 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength14%

Delivery trend -2.3% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 20th of 27. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/04/202611th25/10%0%0.00
15/05/20261st18/15%100%+0.95
25/05/202610th12/137%0%-0.37
05/07/20263rd22/10%78%+0.78
11/07/20263rd80/10%90%+0.90
16/07/20264th11/893%25%-0.68
25/07/202611th22/10%0%0.00
22/08/202611th28/10%47%+0.47
19/09/20266th11/142%62%+0.19