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13

Shafdar

4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 89

Newmarket · bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) · 1m 1f

#14

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#14

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made the frame at Glorious Goodwood and York's Ebor Festival before gaining the third success of a productive first campaign with this stable at Chester (10.3f, good to soft) 14 days ago. Carries a 4-lb penalty.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chelmsford City 08/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR - · 1m Std 1428/0244 @ Chelmsford City 12/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 80 · 1m Std 135 · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 80 par2 @ Newcastle 03/04/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 84 · 1m5y Std 114 · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 84 par3/042OR 844 @ Epsom Downs 28/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 84 · 1m113y Gd 134 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 84 par2 @ Ascot 09/05/2026 · Pos 24th of 28 · OR 89 · 7f Goo 124 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 89 par9/052OR 892 @ Sandown 13/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 89 · 1m Goo 131 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 89 par3 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 88 · 1m1f11y GF 134 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 88 par1/083OR 882 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 20 · OR 89 · 1m2f56y Goo 124 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 89 par3 @ Chester 12/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 89 · 1m2f70y Sft 134 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 89 par12/093OR 89projClass-projected finish: 5th of 27
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Chester31st2nd−1
2026-08-22York24th4th0
2026-08-01Goodwood34th5th−1
2026-06-13Sandown26th6th0
2026-05-09Ascot224th24th0
2026-04-28Epsom Downs41st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0228/041/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 2762% of fieldRange 4-25 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength49%

Delivery trend +6.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 27. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/02/20261st8/1597%100%+0.03
12/03/20262nd11/1094%83%-0.11
03/04/202613th10/147%8%-0.40
28/04/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
09/05/202624th12/137%15%-0.22
13/06/20266th10/147%55%+0.07
01/08/20264th17/255%79%+0.23
22/08/20264th20/10%84%+0.84
12/09/20261st6/492%100%+0.08