20
Spell Master
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 89
Newmarket · bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) · 1m 1f
#19
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#19
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | York | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Goodwood | 3 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | York | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Newmarket | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Doncaster | 3 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Newcastle | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 2758% of fieldRange 3-23 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength55%
Delivery trend +7.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 27. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2024 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 11/04/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 14/09/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 04/10/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 06/06/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 30% | +0.14 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 76% | +0.76 |
| 01/08/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 85% | +0.58 |