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15

St Anton

3yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 97

Newmarket · bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) · 1m 1f

#6

Rank

Odds

40/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Three 1m handicap wins this year, including here and a strong event on the July Course. Shaped as if still in good form (set plenty to do) when seventh of 19 in 1m handicap at York (good to soft) last month. One who could go well at likely bigger odds.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newmarket 22/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 7f Goo 12822/0844 @ Epsom Downs 11/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 7f3y Goo 1334 @ Salisbury 02/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 1m Goo 1332/1044 @ Newmarket 14/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 82 · 1m Gd 132 · beat its mark14/04/2026 · OR 82 par3 @ Newmarket 01/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 82 · 1m GF 127 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 82 par1/053OR 824 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 85 · 7f173y Goo 135 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 85 par2 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2026 · Pos 14th of 30 · OR 91 · 1m GF 123 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 91 par18/062OR 912 @ Newmarket 11/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 91 · 1m GF 127 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 91 par2 @ York 21/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 19 · OR 97 · 7f192y GS 133 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 97 par21/082OR 97projClass-projected finish: 6th of 27
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21York27th7th0
2026-07-11Newmarket21st1st0
2026-06-18Royal Ascot214th14th0
2026-05-30Carlisle41st3rd−2
2026-05-01Newmarket31st2nd−1
2026-04-14Newmarket43rd5th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0814/0418/0621/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 2785% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength71%

Delivery trend +10.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 27. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/08/20253rd15/261%50%-0.11
11/09/20252nd5/696%80%-0.16
02/10/20252nd5/287%90%+0.03
14/04/20263rd5/174%82%+0.08
01/05/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
30/05/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
18/06/202614th18/15%55%+0.50
11/07/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
21/08/20267th25/10%67%+0.67