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Thunder Run

5yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 104

Newmarket · bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) · 1m 1f

#1

Rank

Odds

22/1

Win Prob

23%

Place Prob

27%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Posted some good efforts in defeat in strong York handicaps this season before producing a career-best to win a 12-runner Doncaster handicap (1¼m, good) a fortnight ago. A very smart performance will be needed under a 4-lb penalty but his yard's recent record in this makes him hard to discount.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ York 12/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR 104 · 1m2f56y Goo 138 · beat its mark12/07/2025 · OR 104 par12/072OR 1041 @ Windsor 23/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 104 · 1m3f99y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/08/2025 · OR 104 par2 @ Newmarket 27/09/2025 · Pos 22nd of 23 · OR 103 · 1m1f GF 132 · below its mark27/09/2025 · OR 103 par27/092OR 1031 @ Kempton 06/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 102 · 1m1f219y Sta 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/04/2026 · OR 102 par2 @ York 15/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 100 · 1m2f56y Gd 138 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 100 par15/052OR 1002 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2026 · Pos 15th of 28 · OR 103 · 1m GF 131 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 103 par2 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 22 · OR 103 · 1m2f56y Goo 136 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 103 par11/072OR 1032 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 20 · OR 101 · 1m2f56y Goo 136 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 101 par2 @ Doncaster 12/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 104 · 1m2f43y Gd 138 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 104 par12/092OR 104projClass-projected finish: 1st of 27
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Doncaster21st1st0
2026-08-22York22nd2nd0
2026-07-11York27th7th0
2026-06-17Royal Ascot215th15th0
2026-05-15York22nd2nd0
2026-04-06Kempton17th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/076/0411/0712/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 27100% of fieldRange 1-22 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength72%

Delivery trend +11.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 27. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/07/20256th15/261%71%+0.10
23/08/20254th3/184%0%-0.84
27/09/202522nd28/10%5%+0.05
06/04/20267th12/137%0%-0.37
15/05/20262nd8/158%93%+0.35
17/06/202615th25/10%48%+0.48
11/07/20267th22/10%71%+0.71
22/08/20262nd14/126%95%+0.68
12/09/20261st11/486%100%+0.14