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Urban Lion

5yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 99

Newmarket · bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) · 1m 1f

#24

Rank

Odds

66/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#24

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Took another step forward when digging deep for success in the Lincoln at Doncaster on return in March but 4 lesser runs have followed. Only 1 lb above the mark he defied at Doncaster but a leap of faith is needed.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.

Class-adjusted form 13.0 /10 (raw 7.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 2
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 30 · OR 92 · 1m GF 129 · beat its mark18/06/2025 · OR 92 par18/062OR 922 @ Ascot 09/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 98 · 7f213y Goo 139 · beat its mark09/08/2025 · OR 98 par2 @ York 21/08/2025 · Pos 13th of 17 · OR 98 · 7f192y Goo 136 · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 98 par21/082OR 982 @ Newmarket 27/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 23 · OR 99 · 1m1f GF 128 · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 99 par2 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 21 · OR 98 · 1m Goo 132 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 98 par28/032OR 982 @ Newbury 18/04/2026 · Pos 24th of 24 · OR 102 · 1m Goo 135 · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 102 par2 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2026 · Pos 26th of 28 · OR 102 · 1m GF 130 · below its mark17/06/2026 · OR 102 par17/062OR 1022 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 101 · 1m GF 135 · below its mark25/07/2026 · OR 101 par2 @ Ascot 04/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 99 · 1m Goo 135 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 99 par4/092OR 99projClass-projected finish: 24th of 27
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Ascot29th9th0
2026-07-25Ascot29th9th0
2026-06-17Royal Ascot226th26th0
2026-04-18Newbury224th24th0
2026-03-28Doncaster21st1st0
2025-09-27Newmarket29th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0627/0917/064/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish26th of 274% of fieldRange 16-27 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -4.0% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 26th of 27. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/06/20255th25/10%86%+0.86
09/08/20253rd11/588%78%-0.11
21/08/202513th12/137%25%-0.12
27/09/20259th9/153%64%+0.11
28/03/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
18/04/202624th10/147%0%-0.47
17/06/202626th25/10%7%+0.07
25/07/20269th14/126%20%-0.06
04/09/20269th18/15%33%+0.28