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Wild Thoughts

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 89

Newmarket · bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) · 1m 1f

#10

Rank

Odds

18/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#10

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won his first 4 handicaps in the spring and has got back on the up since tackling 1¼m, finishing a close third to Bourbon Blues at Doncaster before seeing off 10 rivals with a bit to spare at Ayr (soft) last week. Respected under a 4-lb penalty.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Lingfield 28/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 56 · 1m1y Std 132 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 56 par28/046OR 566 @ Kempton 30/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 56 · 7f Sta 138 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 56 par4 @ Windsor 11/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 77 · 1m31y Goo 132 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 77 par11/054OR 774 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 84 · 7f173y Goo 134 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 84 par2 @ Newmarket 11/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 89 · 1m GF 125 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 89 par11/072OR 893 @ Goodwood 30/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 19 · OR 89 · 1m Goo 134 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 89 par3 @ Newbury 15/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 89 · 1m2f GF 129 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 89 par15/083OR 892 @ Doncaster 10/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 89 · 1m2f43y Goo 123 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 89 par2 @ Ayr 17/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 89 · 1m2f Sft 127 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 89 par17/092OR 89projClass-projected finish: 9th of 27
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Ayr21st1st0
2026-09-10Doncaster23rd3rd0
2026-08-15Newbury32nd3rd−1
2026-07-30Goodwood39th10th−1
2026-07-11Newmarket27th7th0
2026-05-30Carlisle42nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0430/0515/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 2769% of fieldRange 5-24 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength48%

Delivery trend +5.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 27. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/04/20261st2/999%100%+0.01
30/04/20261st2/799%100%+0.02
11/05/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
30/05/20262nd7/282%86%+0.04
11/07/20267th14/126%14%-0.12
30/07/20269th22/10%56%+0.56
15/08/20262nd6/168%67%-0.02
10/09/20263rd20/10%80%+0.80
17/09/20261st11/486%100%+0.14