4
Addison Grey
4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 97
Newmarket · Hunt Family Fund Handicap · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Ascot | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Newbury | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | York | 2 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Salisbury | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Newbury | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Newmarket | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength72%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 13/09/2025 | 10th | 10/3 | 82% | 55% | -0.27 |
| 17/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 93% | +0.11 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 69% | -0.16 |
| 30/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 25/07/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 15/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 05/09/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |