7
Aqpan
3yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 94
Newmarket · Hunt Family Fund Handicap · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.6
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Chester | 2 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Goodwood | 2 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Haydock | 1 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-05-16 | Newbury | 1 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Newbury | 1 | 6th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Southwell | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength10%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/12/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 91% | +0.28 |
| 17/12/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 86% | -0.09 |
| 28/03/2026 | 1st | 1/10 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 18/04/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 16/05/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/08/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 22/08/2026 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 8% | -0.07 |