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Arctic Dawn

5yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 102

Newmarket · Hunt Family Fund Handicap · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

93%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has shown improved form over 7f this season. Scored readily at Doncaster in June before rallying to resume winning ways at Newmarket last month. Seemingly anchored by a 6-lb penalty under contrasting conditions at York (1m, soft) latest. Looks to have a more realistic chance at the weights here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 27/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 84 · 7f14y Sta 139 · beat its mark27/10/2025 · OR 84 par27/104OR 844 @ Kempton 05/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 84 · 7f Sta 142 · beat its mark05/11/2025 · OR 84 par3 @ Lingfield 03/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 92 · 7f1y Std 137 · beat its mark03/12/2025 · OR 92 par3/123OR 923 @ Newmarket 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 91 · 7f Goo 132 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 91 par3 @ Doncaster 06/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 91 · 7f6y GF 131 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 91 par6/063OR 912 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2026 · Pos 24th of 28 · OR 100 · 7f GF 133 · below its mark18/06/2026 · OR 100 par2 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 100 · 7f GF 136 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 100 par25/072OR 1002 @ Newmarket 08/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 100 · 7f GF 140 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 100 par2 @ York 20/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 100 · 7f192y GS 136 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 100 par20/082OR 100projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20York28th8th0
2026-08-08Newmarket21st1st0
2026-07-25Ascot26th6th0
2026-06-18Royal Ascot224th24th0
2026-06-06Doncaster31st2nd−1
2026-05-16Newmarket33rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1016/0525/0720/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/10/20251st13/266%100%+0.34
05/11/20258th9/276%46%-0.30
03/12/20255th8/158%56%-0.02
16/05/20263rd16/116%80%+0.64
06/06/20261st18/581%100%+0.19
18/06/202624th40/10%15%+0.15
25/07/20266th28/10%67%+0.67
08/08/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
20/08/20268th28/10%46%+0.46