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13

Dapper Guest

4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 83

Newmarket · Hunt Family Fund Handicap · 7f

#3

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Had fallen a long way in the weights prior to rattling off a quick-fire double at Epsom (7f), winning in comfortable fashion there earlier this month. Hat-trick may evade him from out of the weights here, even with good-value claimer taking over.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Ascot 01/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 84 · 1m Goo 129 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 84 par1/053OR 844 @ Yarmouth 28/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 82 · 7f3y Goo 137 · below its mark28/05/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Newmarket 19/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 80 · 7f Goo 135 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 80 par19/064OR 802 @ Newmarket 11/07/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 80 · 7f GF 115 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Ascot 24/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 78 · 7f GF 140 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 78 par24/074OR 784 @ Kempton 12/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 85 · 7f Sta 135 · below its mark12/08/2026 · OR 85 par4 @ Brighton 23/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 76 · 6f210y Goo 131 · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 76 par23/084OR 764 @ Epsom Downs 31/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 76 · 7f3y GS 137 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ Epsom Downs 10/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 75 · 7f3y Goo 141 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 75 par10/094OR 75projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Epsom Downs41st3rd−2
2026-08-31Epsom Downs41st3rd−2
2026-08-23Brighton43rd5th−2
2026-08-12Kempton411th13th−2
2026-07-24Ascot48th10th−2
2026-07-11Newmarket213th13th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0511/0723/0810/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength27%

Delivery trend +4.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/05/20268th50/10%30%+0.30
28/05/20266th15/261%17%-0.44
19/06/20264th10/147%67%+0.19
11/07/202613th50/10%0%0.00
24/07/20268th14/126%30%+0.04
12/08/202611th13/266%0%-0.66
23/08/20263rd14/126%67%+0.40
31/08/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
10/09/20261st9/153%100%+0.47