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12

Sword

5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 84

Newmarket · Hunt Family Fund Handicap · 7f

#10

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Temperamental sort has gone close a couple of times for current connections, including on July Course (6f) last month. Arrives on the back of a lesser effort at Ascot and is 2 lb out of the handicap in his bid to snap a losing streak.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength21%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 04/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 85 · 7f14y Std 137 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 85 par4/104OR 853 @ Haydock 17/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 87 · 7f212y Goo 137 · below its mark17/10/2025 · OR 87 par3 @ Lingfield 09/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 86 · 7f135y Goo 126 · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 86 par9/053OR 864 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 20 · OR 85 · 7f Gd 140 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ Newmarket 11/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 85 · 7f GF 137 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 85 par11/073OR 852 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 85 · 7f GF 121 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 85 par2 @ Newmarket 08/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 85 · 7f GF 125 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 85 par8/082OR 854 @ Newmarket 22/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 83 · 6f Gd 138 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 83 par2 @ Ascot 05/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 84 · 6f Goo 125 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 84 par5/092OR 84projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Ascot27th7th0
2026-08-22Newmarket42nd4th−2
2026-08-08Newmarket28th8th0
2026-07-25Ascot25th5th0
2026-07-11Newmarket36th7th−1
2026-06-12York43rd5th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/1012/068/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength31%

Delivery trend +1.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/10/20252nd7/282%90%+0.08
17/10/202511th9/153%0%-0.53
09/05/20268th40/10%0%0.00
12/06/20263rd80/10%89%+0.89
11/07/20266th25/10%50%+0.50
25/07/20265th33/10%73%+0.73
08/08/20268th9/153%22%-0.30
22/08/20262nd10/147%92%+0.44
05/09/20267th11/271%50%-0.21