5
Sword Maker
3yo Colt · 9-2 · OR 96
Newmarket · Hunt Family Fund Handicap · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength15%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | Meydan | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-01-09 | Meydan | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2025-10-02 | Salisbury | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-12 | Doncaster | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-08-16 | Ripon | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-30 | Redcar | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/2025 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 30/07/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 16/08/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 12/09/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 02/10/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 09/01/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 30/01/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |