1
Absaroka
10yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 80
Remington Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Remington Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-23 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-09 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-12 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Remington Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength24%
Delivery trend -8.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 02/11/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 16/11/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 43% | -0.18 |
| 20/12/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 12/01/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 09/02/2026 | 4th | 10/11 | 95% | 57% | -0.38 |
| 23/02/2026 | 5th | 11/10 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |
| 23/03/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |
| 05/09/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |