8
Joe's Candy
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 88
Remington Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Remington Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | Remington Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength83%
Delivery trend +4.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 02/11/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 02/01/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 29% | -0.61 |
| 22/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 28/04/2026 | 9th | 2/1 | 89% | 20% | -0.69 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 05/09/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 18/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 67% | -0.26 |