Old Boys Club

4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 88

Remington Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength52%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-20	Remington Park	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-09-04	Remington Park	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0
2026-07-11	Lone Star	?	2nd	-1th	+3	5.0
2026-07-04	Lone Star	?	9th	6th	+3	4.0
2026-06-14	Lone Star	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-05-31	Lone Star	?	8th	8th	0	2.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▬

Strength85%

Delivery trend +0.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
17/05/2025	5th	13/2	66%	33%	-0.32
07/06/2025	5th	25/1	0%	50%	+0.50
28/03/2026	3rd	16/1	16%	67%	+0.51
31/05/2026	8th	14/1	26%	36%	+0.10
14/06/2026	3rd	33/1	0%	82%	+0.82
04/07/2026	9th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16
11/07/2026	2nd	12/1	37%	89%	+0.52
04/09/2026	8th	20/1	0%	13%	+0.13
20/09/2026	3rd	15/2	61%	71%	+0.11