7
Scenic Route
2yo Colt · 9-7 · OR 78
Ripon · Theakston Brewing Legends Since 1827 EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/6
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
84%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength40%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | York | 2 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-08-14 | Thirsk | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 4-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength61%
Delivery trend -39.0% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 90% | +0.43 |
| 06/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |