5
Statten Island
2yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 72
Ripon · Lloyd Landrover Ripon Nursery (GBBPlus Race) · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Southwell | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Thirsk | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Ayr | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | York | 2 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 6-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 40% | -0.52 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 27/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |